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未来气候变化对中国北方地区的小麦谷物产量和蛋白质的影响
Di Zhang1, Jinna Liu2, Dongxiao Li3
1Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100081, China; Department of Biological Engineering, Yangling Vocational & Technical College, Xianyang 712000, China.
The Science of the total environment
|August 10, 2023
概括
气候变化可能会影响小麦蛋白质的质量,而不是产量. 一个修改后的作物模型显示,未来的变暖可能会增加小麦产量,但降低谷物蛋白质含量,特别是在某些气候场景下.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 作物建模作物建模
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化对小麦生产构成重大威胁,目前的作物模型缺乏谷物质量预测,可能会低估.
- 准确预测小麦谷物质量和蛋白质成分对于粮食安全和农业规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 将小麦质量模块集成到CROPSIM-CERES-小麦模型中,以评估气候变化对小麦产量和蛋白质质量的影响.
- 通过CMIP6全球气候模型和共享社会经济路径,研究这些影响在中国北部地区 (NCR).
主要方法:
- 开发并验证了一种经过修改的CERES-Wheat模型,该模型包含一个使用NCR现场数据的蛋白质组件模块.
- 在三条共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下利用了五个CMIP6全球气候模型 (GCM) 进行未来气候预测.
- 分析了温度,降水,辐射的预测变化及其对小麦现象学,产量和蛋白质含量的影响.
主要成果:
- 修改后的模型准确地预测了谷物产量和蛋白质含量.
- 未来的气候情景 (2030年代,2050年代,2080年代) 预计NCR的气温增加和降水变化.
- 虽然预计平均谷物产量将增加 (13.3-30.9%),但区域谷物蛋白质含量预计将下降 (2.0-3.5%),在SSP之间存在差异.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将增加小麦产量,但降低NCR中的蛋白质含量.
- 在未来的气候条件下,结构蛋白质含量可能会减少,而储存蛋白质含量可能会增加.
- 增强模型是制定减缓战略的宝贵工具,以应对气候变化对小麦质量和生产的影响.
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