加拿大辐射瘤学家的供需:从2020年到2040年的劳动力规划预测
Shaun K Loewen1, Yibing Ruan2, Che Hsuan David Wu3
1Division of Radiation Oncology, Tom Baker Cancer Centre, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
International journal of radiation oncology, biology, physics
|August 10, 2023
概括
加拿大面临着对放射性瘤学家的日益增长的需求,尽管目前的劳动力增长,预测表明未来的赤字. 建议增加实习生职位,以满足未来癌症护理需求.
科学领域:
- 瘤学 劳动力规划 计划
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
背景情况:
- 在加拿大,癌症发病率和对放射治疗的需求正在增加.
- 准确的劳动力规划对于满足未来医疗需求至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为加拿大的放射瘤学家更新基于需求的劳动力规划模型.
- 预测到2040年,辐射瘤学家的未来供应和需求.
主要方法:
- 用一个递归衰老的输入输出模型来预测劳动力供应.
- 根据癌症发病率,推模式和工作负载指标来估计需求.
- 用历史数据 (2005-2019) 来验证模型参数.
主要成果:
- 预计到2026年,放射性瘤学家的临时余将持续到2026年,随后将出现赤字.
- 敏感性分析表明供应持续不足,突出显示潜在的实习生短缺.
- 目前的实习生人数可能不足以满足预计的劳动力扩张需求.
结论:
- 未来对放射性瘤学家的需求预计将超过人员数量的增长.
- 该研究建议增加实习生位,以应对预期的赤字.
- 需要进一步的战略来增强加拿大癌症患者的放射治疗能力和治疗.
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