撒哈拉以南非洲国家的能源规划需要明确考虑电力的生产用途
Anteneh G Dagnachew1,2, Su-Min Choi3,4, Giacomo Falchetta5,6
1PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands. anteneh.dagnachew@pbl.nl.
Scientific reports
|August 10, 2023
概括
撒哈拉以南非洲地区的生产用电量大大提高了家庭需求,影响了成本最佳的电气化技术选择. 规划必须考虑到这种增加的需求,以确保有效的能源获取和经济发展.
科学领域:
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 可持续的发展 可持续的发展
- 综合评估建模综合评估建模
背景情况:
- 撒哈拉以南非洲的电气化往往侧重于家庭的最终用途,如照明和.
- 在能源规划中,电力对于生产用途 (收入创造,劳动生产率) 的重要作用经常被忽视.
- 现有的研究并没有完全捕捉到生产电力需求对区域能源系统的影响.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一种方法来预测生产电力使用对撒哈拉以南非洲能源系统的影响.
- 量化家庭电力需求的增加归因于生产活动.
- 为电气化的成本最佳技术选择和投资规划提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用了IMAGE-TIMER综合评估模型框架.
- 开发了一种方法来将生产活动纳入电力需求预测中.
- 分析了对电气化技术成本和投资需求的后果.
主要成果:
- 增长的生产活动可以使家庭电力需求增加约50%.
- 这种增加的需求显著影响了选择成本最佳的电气化技术.
- 生产用电提高了电气化系统的财务可行性,但也大大提高了投资需求.
结论:
- 撒哈拉以南非洲地区的电力系统规划必须明确包括生产用途的需求.
- 满足生产电力需求对于最大限度地提高经济效益和劳动生产率至关重要.
- 增加投资是必要的,以满足由生产活动驱动的更高的电力需求,尽管财务可行性得到了改善.
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