较高的食品价格可以减少贫困,并刺激粮食生产的增长
Derek Headey1, Kalle Hirvonen2,3
1International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Colombo, Sri Lanka. d.headey@cgiar.org.
Nature food
|August 10, 2023
概括
食品价格上可以减少贫困,特别是在农业中等收入国家. 较高的粮食成本激励农业生产,提高工资,降低贫困率.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 发展研究 发展研究 研究
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
背景情况:
- 2007-2008年,2010-2011年和2021-2022年的粮食价格升引发了对其对贫困影响的质疑.
- 虽然食物是穷人的主要支出,但许多人还依赖粮食生产和销售来获得收入.
- 以前的短期模型可能低估了价格上对贫困人口粮食生产的积极影响.
研究的目的:
- 分析实际粮食价格变化与中等收入国家贫困率之间的关系.
- 调查食品价格波动对贫困人口的短期影响.
- 探索农业供应响应和工资调整的调解作用.
主要方法:
- 分析了2000年至2019年间来自33个中等收入国家的年度数据.
- 利用世界银行的贫困指标和实际粮食价格变化.
- 雇员小组回归分析,以评估食品价格上对贫困的影响.
主要成果:
- 实际食品价格的同比上与每天3.20美元的贫困人口数量减少有关.
- 这种减少贫困的效应在大多数中等收入国家中得到观察.
- 在更多的城市或非农业经济体中,积极影响不那么明显.
结论:
- 粮食价格上可以刺激农业供应,导致对不熟练劳动力的需求增加和工资上.
- 这表明,在许多中等收入的农业环境中,更高的粮食价格可以产生净减贫效应.
- 政策考虑应该考虑到食品价格的双重作用,即作为穷人的成本和收入来源.
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