在具有年龄结构的伪狂犬病病毒模型中,全球非对称稳定性
Yining Chen1, Yuhua Long1, Jianshe Yu1
1College of Mathematics and Information Sciences, Center for Applied Mathematics, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, People's Republic of China.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|August 11, 2023
概括
这项研究模拟了假狂犬病病毒 (PRV) 在猪中传播的模型,揭示了关键值. 在此以下,PRV在小猪中持续存在,但不是成年猪;在此以上,该疾病在整个人口中变得流行.
科学领域:
- 兽医病毒学 兽医病毒学
- 数学流行病学数学流行病学
- 猪病的动态 猪病的动态
背景情况:
- 伪狂犬病病毒 (PRV) 或suid herpesvirus 1 (SuHV1) 是一种高度传染性的病原体,在全球猪业中造成了巨大的经济损失.
- 了解PRV传播动态对于猪群中有效的疾病控制和预防策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析伪狂犬病病毒传播的年龄结构数学模型.
- 调查疾病相关死亡率和垂直传播对PRV动态的影响.
- 确定不同年龄组的猪中疾病持久性和根除的条件.
主要方法:
- 为PRV传播制定一个年龄结构的分区模型.
- 使用数学技术分析模型的平衡和它们的稳定性.
- 确定控制疾病持续性的值参数.
主要成果:
- 确定了一个关键值,确定了无病平衡的稳定性.
- 当达到值条件 () 时,PRV在小猪中是特有的,但在成年人中会消失.
- 在值 () 以上,存在一种独特的,全球稳定的特有平衡,表明疾病普遍存在.
结论:
- 年龄结构和传播途径显著影响PRV的流行病学行为.
- 该模型提供了对年龄相关疾病动态的见解,这对于有针对性的干预策略至关重要.
- 数学建模是了解和管理牲畜病毒性疾病的宝贵工具.
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