在将住房价格因素纳入CPI后,研究中国的实际利率
Shiting Ding1, Qintian Pan1, Yanming Zhang1
1School of Economics and Management, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei, Anhui, P. R. China.
PloS one
|August 11, 2023
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 金融经济学 金融经济学
- 中国经济 中国经济.
背景情况:
- 中国的金融部门表现出金融镇压,这是计划经济的特征.
- 中国官方的利率和消费者价格指数 (CPI) 计算可能不准确地反映真实通货膨胀,原因是测量系统过时.
- 现有的CPI计算不能完全考虑住房价格上,这是中国居民的一项重大支出.
研究的目的:
- 制定一个包含住房价格通胀的通用消费者消费指数 (GCPI).
- 通过GCPI重新评估中国1999年至2022年的实际利率状况.
- 分析金融镇压对中国居民房地产收入和通货膨胀调整后损失的影响.
主要方法:
- 收集和分析了有关中国居民支出的官方统计数据.
- 计算住房购买支出与总支出相比的比例.
- 通过加权住房价格和官方CPI组件来制定GCPI.
- 将市场利率与GCPI比较,以确定实际利率.
主要成果:
- 从GCPI来看,中国的实际利率自1999年以来大多数年都是负的.
- 中国居民经历了金融镇压的负面影响,房地产收入落后于通货膨胀引起的损失.
- 官方的CPI计算低估了居民所经历的实际通货膨胀,因为排除了房价上.
结论:
- 中国的CPI计算方法需要进行调整,以包括房价通胀,以更准确地反映实际通胀.
- 金融镇压对中国居民的实际投资回报产生了负面影响.
- 进一步的金融市场自由化和扩大投资道对于中国金融体系发展至关重要.
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