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Zijie Kong¹, Hongbo Ling², Mingjiang Deng¹

¹State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China; School of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China.

The Science of the total environment

|August 11, 2023

概括

气候变化影响中国的植被. 部分植被覆盖面 (FVC) 整体上升,但到2039年将在东部下降,需要集中生态系统管理.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
气候科学气候科学
生态生态学生态生态学

背景情况:

加强气候变化和生态系统管理迫切需要对它们对中国植被的双重影响进行分析.
了解过去的植被变化和预测未来的趋势对于有效的环境战略至关重要.

研究的目的:

量化中国从1982年到2018年的过去部分植被覆盖面 (FVC) 变化.
预测到2060年在各种气候情景 (SSP) 下的未来FVC趋势.
确定FVC变化的关键环境驱动因素和区域差异.

主要方法:

开发了一个框架模型,以准确识别部分植被覆盖面 (FVC) 变化模式.
分析了从1982年到2018年的FVC数据,以确定趋势 (线性增长/高斯式下降).
利用五种机器学习算法,根据四种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 预测未来的FVC.

主要成果:

在1982-2018年间,中国的FVC主要呈现线性增长 (29.5%) 或高斯式下降 (27.4%).
土壤水分和蒸汽压力不足被确定为FVC变化的关键驱动因素.
环境变化对大多数地区的FVC产生了积极的影响,影响程度各不相同.

结论:

未来的FVC预计将在2060年之前呈上升趋势,在中国东部有一个显著的例外,在2039年后将面临快速下降.
东部地区从增长向衰退的转变凸显了它作为未来生态系统管理的关键领域.
在FVC响应的区域差异强调了需要量身定制的环境政策.

关键词:

改变模式改变模式生态系统管理生态系统管理环境变化环境变化部分的植被覆盖部分的植被覆盖.未来的趋势未来的趋势

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