长期干旱的经济影响:挑战,差距和前进的道路
Francisco J Fernández1, Felipe Vásquez-Lavín2, Roberto D Ponce2
1Escuela de Negocios, Facultad de Economía y Gobierno, Universidad San Sebastián, Santiago, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research, Chile; Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Chile.
Journal of environmental management
|August 13, 2023
概括
了解干旱对经济的影响对于规划至关重要. 高的基础设施容量和储水能力提高了抵御力,但长期的干旱可能会导致水资源短缺的临界点.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在改变干旱的特征,增加经济风险.
- 量化干旱对经济的影响对于有效的规划和战略制定至关重要.
- 长时间的干旱会给用水者带来更多的累积经济损失.
研究的目的:
- 提出和应用一个分析框架来评估长期干旱对经济的影响.
- 评估智利中部大干旱对经济的影响.
- 确定影响干旱经济影响的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 开发一个分析框架,用于对长期干旱的经济评估.
- 应用框架来分析智利中部的大干旱.
- 确定影响因素,如基础设施容量 (IC) 和储存中的水量 (AWS).
主要成果:
- 高IC和AWS,加上有效的用户响应,赋予了对长期干旱的弹性.
- 尽管它们具有适应能力,但长时间的干旱可能会导致关键的水位值和不断升级的经济影响.
- 适应战略的灵活性影响经济结果,长期战略可能变得不那么适应.
结论:
- 大干旱的经济评估必须优先考虑未来的临界点 (严重的水资源短缺).
- 临界点是由IC,储水管理 (AWS) 和适应战略决定的.
- 需要跨学科的研究来确定这些积极的水资源管理的关键转折点.
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