预测和分析高速公路碰撞发生的可能性,考虑到危险的驾驶行为
Yongfeng Ma1, Junjie Zhang1, Jian Lu1
1Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban ITS, School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China; Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|August 13, 2023
概括
这项研究使用驾驶行为和交通数据开发了一种准确的高速公路撞车预测模型. 极端梯度提升 (XGBoost) 模型,结合危险的驾驶行为,实现了高预测准确性,提高了交通安全.
科学领域:
- 交通安全工程 交通安全工程
- 运输系统分析 运输系统分析
- 机器学习在运输中的应用
背景情况:
- 高速公路安全管理依赖于事故预测,传统上使用交通流量数据.
- 有限的研究已经将危险的驾驶行为纳入了碰撞预测模型.
- 导航软件可以收集详细的驾驶行为数据.
研究的目的:
- 开发和比较高速公路撞车概率预测模型.
- 调查危险驾驶行为对碰撞预测准确性的影响.
- 确定影响高速公路撞车可能性的关键特征.
主要方法:
- 收集了包括驾驶行为,交通量和速度在内的多来源数据.
- 应用SMOTE + ENN进行数据平衡.
- 使用二项逻辑,极端梯度提升 (XGBoost) 和支持向量机器 (SVM) 构建了预测模型.
- 使用Shapley添加式解释 (SHAP) 进行特征重要性分析.
主要成果:
- 与logit和SVM相比,XGBoost模型显示出更高的预测准确性 (0.96%)
- 排名危险的驾驶行为强度提高了XGBoost模型的预测准确度.
- 对于XGBoost模型来说,10分钟的时间步骤比5分钟的步骤更准确.
- 高拥堵和上游的显著速度变化增加了碰撞的可能性;急剧的加速/减速是关键的风险因素.
结论:
- XGBoost模型为预测高速公路撞车概率提供了一个有效的框架.
- 纳入危险的驾驶行为显著提高了碰撞预测的准确性.
- 调查结果为预防碰撞,驾驶员培训和交通法规制定提供了洞察力.
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