估计巴西孕期梅毒的实际负担,2007-2018:贝叶斯模型研究
Guilherme Lopes de Oliveira1,2, Andrêa J F Ferreira1,3, Carlos Antônio de S S Teles1
1Centre of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fiocruz, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.
Lancet regional health. Americas
|August 14, 2023
概括
巴西的妊娠梅毒 (GS) 报告不足是显著的,在2007-2018年期间,超过45,000例未报告. 经过校正的发病率显示,疾病负担更高,特别是在北部和东北部地区.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 怀孕期梅毒 (GS) 发病率估计往往忽略了报告不足.
- 巴西在各个微区域准确通报GS病例方面面临着挑战.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计巴西微型地区GS的低注册水平.
- 用一个强大的统计方法来纠正GS发病率.
主要方法:
- 使用了来自SINAN-Syphilis的巴西GS通知数据 (2007-2018).
- 应用集群分析以按通知质量分组微区域.
- 采用贝叶斯阶层波桑回归来纠正发生率.
主要成果:
- 估计有45,196个GS病例报告不足 (2007-2018),覆盖率为87.12%.
- 报告不足的区域差异很大,在北方和东北地区最高.
- 修正后的GS发病率从每1000个活产婴儿中从8.74增加到10.02.
结论:
- 巴西GS监测在质量和发病率方面表现出区域异质性.
- 调查结果强调需要改善监督和有针对性的政策.
- 方法论为纠正全球疾病报告不足提供了一个框架.
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