众议院共和党人因支持唐纳德特朗普的"停止盗窃"努力而获得奖励
Larry M Bartels1, Nicholas Carnes2
1Department of Political Science, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37203-5721.
概括
众议院共和党人支持唐纳德特朗普推翻2020年大选的努力,在2022年没有面临任何选举处罚. 相反,这些政治家经历了职业优势,包括更少的初选失利和更多的机会获得更高的职位.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 美国政治 美国政治
- 选举行为 选举行为
背景情况:
- 在2020年总统大选之后,众多共和党国会成员投票通过了与唐纳德·特朗普推翻选举结果的努力相关的措施.
- 关键的投票包括反对选举人投票认证,弹程序,以及调查1月6日国会大袭击事件的委员会.
研究的目的:
- 调查众议院共和党人支持唐纳德特朗普对2020年选举结果的挑战的选举后果.
- 为了确定这些行为是否导致2022年中期选举的政治奖励或惩罚.
主要方法:
- 分析2021年初众议院共和党人关于特朗普的选举挑战的表决.
- 对2022年中期选举中支持或反对特朗普努力的成员的选举表现进行比较.
- 检查初选结果,大选结果和退休决定.
主要成果:
- 在有争议的大选竞选中,特朗普支持者与非支持者之间的表现没有显著差异.
- 支持特朗普的共和党人不太可能输掉初选.
- 特朗普的支持者更有可能无竞争地竞选,寻求更高的职位,并且不太可能退休.
结论:
- 支持唐纳德特朗普推翻2020年大选的努力,并没有在2022年大选中为众议院共和党人带来重大政治代价.
- 这些行动似乎带来了政治回报,如职业晋升和减少选举风险.
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