在使用德尔菲方法的学科趋势:一个图书统计分析分析
Dmitry Khodyakov1, Sean Grant1,2, Jack Kroger1,3
1RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California, United States of America.
PloS one
|August 15, 2023
概括
用于专家共识的Delphi方法的应用越来越多,特别是在医学领域. 对于跨学科的方法标准,未来的合作是必要的.
科学领域:
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
- 医学科学 医学科学 医学科学
- 科学与技术科学与技术
背景情况:
- 德尔菲方法是一种由专家使用的建立共识的技术.
- 首次发表于1963年,其使用已扩展到各种科学领域.
- 2023年是德尔菲方法首次同行评审出版的60周年.
研究的目的:
- 分析德尔菲方法在最初的60年里跨学科应用的趋势.
- 描述德尔菲方法研究的发展和传播.
主要方法:
- 进行了圣经识别分析.
- 一项系统的文献搜索确定了198313篇在1963年至2023年之间发表的关于德尔菲方法的英语同行评审文章.
- 文章根据其重点 (实证使用与方法指导) 和出版学科进行分类.
主要成果:
- 大多数文章 (96.8%) 在实证研究中使用了德尔菲方法.
- 发表率显著加快,近一半的文章出现在2010年代,超过三分之一的文章出现在2020年代初.
- 医学期刊发表了65%的文章,其次是科学/技术 (15%) 和社会科学 (15%).
结论:
- 医疗领域最近推动了德尔菲法使用的扩大.
- 社会科学家和技术人员仍然是德尔菲方法的方法论发展的关键贡献者.
- 需要加强跨学科合作,为德尔菲方法制定统一的方法指南和标准.
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