土壤湿度与大气的合加速了全球变暖
Liang Qiao1, Zhiyan Zuo2, Renhe Zhang3
1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Nature communications
|August 15, 2023
概括
土壤湿度-大气合 (SA) 放大了全球变暖. 这一由温暖的气候和干燥的土壤驱动的过程预计将加速全球变暖并增加极端温度.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 土壤湿度-大气合 (SA) 是一个关键的过程,放大了温室气体驱动的全球变暖.
- 由于SA,表面热平衡的变化显著影响全球温度趋势.
研究的目的:
- 为了预测SA驱动的变暖的未来加速.
- 在不同的排放场景下量化SA对极端温度事件的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了来自场景模型对比项目 (SCENIP) 的预测.
- 分析了"更温暖的气候 - 更干燥的土壤"的反循环.
- 评估了表面热平衡和极端温度的变化.
主要成果:
- 预计到21世纪末,SA驱动的气候变暖在热带以外的陆地将超过0.5°C.
- 在高排放场景下,极端高温可能在全球增加10%左右,在北美和欧洲增加30%以上.
- 沙漠气候对气候变化的敏感度很高,可能超过自然变化,并作为非线性变暖组成部分.
结论:
- 土壤湿度与大气的结合显著加快了全球变暖.
- "更温暖的气候 - 更干燥的土壤"反带来了极端高温事件增加的重大风险.
- 南非在全球变暖中的非线性作用需要进一步的研究和气候变化减缓战略.
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