在1961-2021年期间,表面风速的变化及其对中国各地风能资源的潜在影响
1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University Beijing China.
GeoHealth
|August 16, 2023
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 评估可再生能源的使用情况.
- 气候变化影响研究 影响研究
背景情况:
- 实现中国的双碳目标需要了解表面风速 (SWS) 变化和风能潜力.
- 在SWS的时间和空间变化受到多种因素的影响,包括大气循环和陆地表面变化.
研究的目的:
- 从1961年到2021年,分析SWS趋势及其对中国风力发电密度 (WPD) 的影响.
- 确定SWS变化的主要驱动因素,并评估高质量的风能资源区域.
主要方法:
- 利用每日SWS气象观测数据,涵盖1961-2021年的时间.
- 计算的风力发电密度 (WPD) 用于量化风能资源.
- 相关的SWS变化与大气循环指数,城市化,植被变化,气溶和仪器变化有关.
主要成果:
- 年平均SWS下降了16.80%,导致风能潜力在60年内减少了47.78%.
- 与平均SWS相比,极端SWS显示出更明显的下降趋势和更早的突然变化.
- 在中国东北部,北部和沿海地区,WPD下降,但在中国西部增加.
结论:
- 风能和风能潜力的显著下降需要适应性战略,以实现中国的可再生能源目标.
- 了解SWS变化的驱动因素,包括大气循环转移,对于准确的风力资源评估至关重要.
- 高质量的风能资源集中在中国西部,北部,东北部和沿海地区,特定地区显示出强大的潜力.
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