在美国,热带气旋后的短期过度死亡率
Robbie M Parks1, Vasilis Kontis2, G Brooke Anderson3
1Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Science advances
|August 16, 2023
概括
热带气旋造成了大量的过度死亡,卡特里娜风是最致命的. 最近的风暴显示这些死亡人数的比例更高,突出显示了持续存在的风险.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 灾难科学 灾难科学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 了解热带气旋后的过度死亡率对于公共卫生准备和缓解策略至关重要.
- 热带气旋构成重大威胁,需要对其死亡影响进行准确的评估.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计从1988年到2019年在美国的热带气旋造成的短期,全因过度死亡.
- 为了确定最致命的热带气旋,并分析过度死亡率的模式.
主要方法:
- 使用了16个贝叶斯模型的集合.
- 分析了4070万美国人的死亡和32年来179个热带气旋的数据.
- 根据风暴强度 (风强度,暴风雨到暴风雨强度) 估计的过剩死亡人数.
主要成果:
- 卡特里娜风 (2005年) 是最致命的,估计造成1491人过度死亡.
- 超过3,112人死于风后的强风,15,590人死于风后的暴风雨.
- 显著大多数过度死亡 (83.1%和70.0%) 发生在最近 (2004-2019).
结论:
- 热带气旋对过度死亡率做出了重大贡献,最近的趋势值得注意.
- 调查结果强调需要持续和更新的公共卫生干预措施,以应对热带气旋的准备和缓解.
- 过度死亡不成比例地影响某些地区,需要进一步调查社会脆弱性因素.
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