极端降雨事件与银河系宇宙射线在巴西纳塔尔/RN上空之间的关系:一个案例研究
Ronabson C Fernandes1, Henderson S Wanderley2, André Luiz DE Carvalho3
1UNINTER, Av. Pres. Castelo Branco, 806, Centro, 57480-000 Delmiro Gouveia, AL, Brazil.
Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciencias
|August 16, 2023
概括
银河宇宙射线 (GCR) 流量通过增加凝结核,显著加剧极端降雨事件. 在巴西纳塔尔/RN,GCR流量对暴雨的贡献更大.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 天体物理学 天体物理学
背景情况:
- 银河系宇宙射线 (GCR) 流量强度影响凝结核 (CN) 生产,导致降雨加剧.
- 极端天气事件,如暴雨,在气候研究中越来越令人担忧.
研究的目的:
- 分析巴西东北部 (NEB) 地区的降雨分布.
- 调查GCR流动对1998年7月巴西纳塔尔州极端降雨事件的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了纳塔尔/RN的历史降雨量,海面温度 (SST) 和GCR流量数据.
- 使用R软件进行全面的统计分析.
- 执行了皮尔森相关性分析和回归建模.
主要成果:
- 在事件>10毫米的降雨量和GCR流量之间发现了强烈的正相关性 (r=0.94,p<0.001).
- 在降雨量和SST之间观察到显著的负相关性 (r=-0.76,p<0.05).
- 在极端降雨中,GCR流量解释了62.0%的变量,而SST解释了32.4%.
结论:
- 在纳塔尔/RN,GCR流动在加剧极端降雨事件方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 与SST相比,GCR流量对极端降雨的贡献更大.
- 这些发现凸显了GCR流量在极端天气事件气候学研究中的重要性.
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