冰川退缩导致的新生态系统的未来出现
J B Bosson1, M Huss2,3,4, S Cauvy-Fraunié5
1Asters, Conservatory of Natural Areas of Haute-Savoie, Annecy, France. jeanbaptiste.bosson@gmail.com.
Nature
|August 16, 2023
概括
由于气候变化导致的冰川收缩将在2100年创造新的生态系统, 需要采取紧急保护和气候行动来保护这些重要的新兴环境.
科学领域:
- 冰川学
- 生态学
- 气候科学
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 人为气候变化导致冰川迅速收缩,导致生态系统发生重大变化.
- 这些变化对生态和社会产生了深远的影响,但缺乏全面的空间分析.
- 冰河后生态系统的发展是全球最快的环境变化之一.
研究的目的:
- 量化到2100年从冰川衰退中出现的新陆地,海洋和淡水生态系统的潜在面积.
- 分析不同气候场景下的冰川面积损失范围.
- 描述脱冰地区的生态条件及其对生物多样性和生态系统服务的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用空间分析模拟南极和格陵兰冰盖以外的冰川面积变化.
- 基于各种气候场景的冰川面积损失预测.
- 评估新兴的冰川后生态系统的生态特征和保护状况.
主要成果:
- 到2100年,冰川的衰退可能会产生新的生态系统,覆盖面积在149,000±55,000平方公里 (尼泊尔) 和339,000±99,000平方公里 (芬兰) 之间.
- 冰川面积的损失预计在22%±8%到51%±15%之间,这取决于气候情况.
- 新兴的生态系统将表现出多样化的条件,支持适应寒冷的物种或促进初级生产力; 目前只有不到一半的这些地区受到保护.
结论:
- 冰川和冰川后生态系统在气候变化,生物多样性丧失和淡水短缺的背景下至关重要.
- 迫切需要同时缓解气候变化和保护这些脆弱的生态系统.
- 保护这些区域对于确保它们的存在,生态运作和固有价值至关重要,与国际保护目标保持一致.
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