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社会分歧和风险感知驱动不同的流行病和随后的大波
Mallory J Harris1, Kimberly J Cardenas1, Erin A Mordecai1
1Biology Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94301, USA.
Evolutionary human sciences
|August 17, 2023
概括
社会分裂影响了流行病的动态. 意识分离可以减少群体之间的死亡率差异,但疲劳可能会导致更大的后期感染波.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 社会行为 社交行为
背景情况:
- 传染病爆发促使人们采取疫苗接种和保持距离等保护性行为.
- 现有的模型往往忽视了社会分裂及其对疾病动态和意识的影响.
- 对疾病负担的认识会影响个人保护措施.
研究的目的:
- 探索社会分裂和意识分离如何影响疾病传播和保护行为.
- 调查意识的影响和人口群体之间的混合分离.
- 分析疲劳在推动后续感染浪潮中的作用.
主要方法:
- 开发一种疾病传播的分区模型.
- 模拟一个人口被分为两个群体,意识和接触率各不相同.
- 在不同的意识和混合分离场景下分析疾病动态.
主要成果:
- 群体之间更大的意识分离导致较小的死亡率差异.
- 行为疲劳可以引发比最初爆发更大的感染波.
- 免疫性感知风险降低可能会降低疫苗接种率,间接增加感染.
结论:
- 基于意识的保护行为和社会分裂显著改变了流行病的动态.
- 意识分离可以减轻社会群体之间的死亡率差异.
- 疲劳和感知风险降低是影响未来感染波的关键因素.
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