基于机器学习的医院长时间住院预测在急诊室:一个梯度增强算法分析算法
Addisu Jember Zeleke1, Pierpaolo Palumbo1, Paolo Tubertini2
1Department of Electrical, Electronic, and Information Engineering Guglielmo Marconi, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
Frontiers in artificial intelligence
|August 17, 2023
概括
机器学习模型有效地预测患者的住院时间 (LoS) 和长期住院时间 (PLoS),帮助医疗保健决策. 梯度提升和/XGBoost回归表现为预测分别PLoS和LoS的最佳表现.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健信息学 医疗保健信息学
- 机器学习在医学中的应用
- 预测分析是一种预测分析.
背景情况:
- 准确预测患者入院时间 (LoS) 对医院资源管理和患者护理优化至关重要.
- 长期停留 (PLoS) 对医疗保健系统构成重大挑战,影响了成本和床位供应.
研究的目的:
- 开发和比较机器学习模型,用于预测急诊室 (ED) 招生中的LoS和PLoS.
- 建立一个决策支持框架,而不是推广单一的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 分析了从1月1日到2022年10月26日的12858个ED入院的数据.
- 六个分类算法 (RF,SVM,GB,AdaBoost,KN,LoR) 被用于预测PLoS (定义为LoS>6天).
- 八个回归模型 (LR,LASSO,Ridge,弹性网,SVR,RF,KNN,XGBoost) 用于LOS预测.
主要成果:
- 梯度提升 (GB) 和物流回归 (LoR) 分类器在预测PLoS方面表现强.
- 峰和极度梯度增强 (XGBoost) 回归是预测LoS最准确的.
- 开发的模型实现了对LoS的6-7天的预测误差.
结论:
- 机器学习模型显示出预测LoS和识别与长时间住院相关的风险的巨大潜力.
- 这些预测工具可以增强临床专业知识,使得人们能够做出明智的决策,以提高医疗保健系统的性能.
- 该研究为在医院管理和患者流量优化中利用预测分析提供了一个框架.
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