纳入全球变化揭示了超出当前红色名单的灭绝风险
Shijia Peng1, Nawal Shrestha2, Yuan Luo3
1Institute of Ecology and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 22 Divinity Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
Current biology : CB
|August 17, 2023
概括
未来的全球变化增加了中国木质物种的灭绝风险. 当前的保护名单低估了威胁,可能阻碍生物多样性目标.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 生物多样性评估评估
背景情况:
- 全球变化正在导致物种分布转移和种群减少.
- 国际自然保护联盟 (IUCN) 红色名单是评估灭绝风险的关键工具.
- 现有的红色清单主要使用过去和当前的数据,不充分反映未来的全球变化影响.
研究的目的:
- 在未来的气候和土地覆盖变化下,评估中国特有木质物种的物种威胁水平.
- 为了比较一个更新的红色名单,结合未来的预测,与中国现有的红色名单.
- 确定保护差距,并完善保护优先事项.
主要方法:
- 利用中国4000多种特有木质物种的分布图.
- 采用组合物种分布模型来预测适合息地的变化.
- 根据预计的息地变化评估威胁水平,并与现有的红色名单数据进行比较.
主要成果:
- 更新的红色名单显示,危物种数量增加.
- 超过50%的现有受威胁物种在最新评估中显示威胁水平增加.
- 超过50%的新发现的危物种缺乏足够的保护区覆盖面.
- 云南-贵州高原成为危物种的主要分布中心,与衡水山脉形成鲜明对比.
结论:
- 不考虑未来全球变化的红色清单低估了灭绝风险.
- 面向未来的评估对于准确的保护优先级来说至关重要.
- 当前的保护战略可能不足以实现全球生物多样性目标,如果不纳入未来变化预测.
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