绘制全球动物性病菌和麻疹区域间传播风险的地图:一项回顾性观察研究
Yan-Qun Sun1,2, Jin-Jin Chen1, Mei-Chen Liu1,3
1State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, 20 Dong-Da Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, 100071, China.
Globalization and health
|August 17, 2023
概括
麻疹病毒 (MPXV) 爆发显示传染性增加,适合的生态位延伸到非洲之外. 在欧洲发现了高进口风险,需要加强监测和针对性干预以预防麻疹.
科学领域:
- 流行病学和病毒学.
- 动物传染病传播动物传染病
- 生态利基建模 生态利基建模
背景情况:
- 自2022年5月以来,在非流行国家持续爆发的麻疹病毒 (MPXV) 疫情.
- 缺乏对MPXV的全球动物感染利基和传播风险的全面评估.
研究的目的:
- 建立全球MPXV发生情况 (1958-2022) 的综合数据库.
- 分析MPXV的演变,传染性动态,并确定动物感染和区域间传播的生态驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 编制了一个全球MPXV发生数据库 (1958-2022).
- 进行了MPXV演变的遗传学分析.
- 估计的有效繁殖数 (Rt) 随着时间的推移,并分析了动物传播风险的生态和气候指标.
主要成果:
- MPXV表现出两个主要基因组,其中刚果盆地基因组显示出比西非基因组更高的2022年之前的传染性.
- 近十年来,西非类的传染能力显著增加,2022年的疫情在非非洲国家显示Rt值从1.14到4.24.
- 在南美,加勒比海,东南亚和南亚确定了适合MPXV的生态;在欧洲指出了高进口风险.
结论:
- 适合MPXV的生态位延伸到非洲以外,在2022年爆发期间观察到显著增加的传染性.
- 欧洲面临着从特有地区和目前流行地区进口MPXV的高风险.
- 更新的预测强调了需要加强对风高风险地区的监测和有针对性的干预.
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