数学建模和分析COVID-19和结核病共同动态
Zenebe Shiferaw Kifle1, Legesse Lemecha Obsu1
1Department of Mathematics, Adama Science and Technology University, Adama, Ethiopia.
Heliyon
|August 18, 2023
概括
这项研究模拟了COVID-19和结核病 (TB) 共同感染的动态,发现这两种感染在生殖数值为1以下是稳定的. 该模型与埃塞俄比亚数据相结合,预测共感染不会出现向后分叉.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 同时感染COVID-19和结核病 (TB) 是一个重大的全球健康挑战.
- 了解这两种传染病之间的复杂相互作用对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析COVID-19和结核病的共同动力学的数学模型.
- 调查单一和共感染模型的稳定性和分叉性质.
- 为了将模型与埃塞俄比亚的真实世界数据相匹配.
主要方法:
- 为COVID-19和结核病协同动力学的数学模型的制定.
- 使用基本生殖数量的模型平衡和稳定性的定性分析.
- 应用中心多元理论来分析分叉现象.
- 使用非线性最小正方形与埃塞俄比亚COVID-19数据的模型拟合.
主要成果:
- 单一感染模型 (COVID-19和结核病) 和共动力学模型都表现出当基本生殖数小于1时的全球非对称稳定性.
- 随着生殖数达到两个单个感染的统一,观察到前进的分叉.
- 证明了共动力学模型可以避免向后分叉.
- 模型与埃塞俄比亚数据相匹配,为模型提供经验验证.
结论:
- 数学模型为了解COVID-19和结核病协同动力学提供了一个强大的框架.
- 这些发现表明,控制低于1的基本生殖数的传播是抑制疾病的关键.
- 在co-dynamics模型中没有向后分叉,这简化了控制策略的开发.
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