在气候危机下使用随机森林算法对印尼加里曼坦群岛进行多种危险暴露映射
Sujung Heo1, Sangjin Park2, Dong Kun Lee3
1Interdisciplinary Program and Life Science, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.
Scientific reports
|August 18, 2023
概括
气候变化加剧了印尼的自然灾害. 这项研究绘制了加里曼丹的干旱和森林火灾风险图,预测未来气候情景下发生的事件增加,以更好地评估危险.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 灾害风险管理 灾害风险管理
背景情况:
- 印度尼西亚经常面临自然灾害,气候变化加剧了干旱和森林火灾等事件的风险.
- 加利曼丹岛特别容易受到这些与气候有关的危险,影响生命和财产.
- 了解导致因素和未来预测对于有效的缓解至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析加利曼坦干旱和森林火灾的因素.
- 为这些危险创建单一和多重风险地图.
- 在不同的气候变化场景下,预测未来的干旱和森林火灾风险.
主要方法:
- 绘制11个关键因素 (气候,地形,人为,植被) 的地图.
- 随机森林 (RF) 的应用用于单个和多个风险映射.
- 使用结合模型相互比较项目 (CMIP6) 进行未来气候场景预测 (RCP-SSP2-4.5,RCP-SSP5-8.5).
主要成果:
- 确定了影响干旱和森林火灾发生的关键因素.
- 为当前和未来条件生成空间风险地图.
- 预计干旱 (22.6%) 和森林火灾 (21.7%) 的概率会增加,其中2.6%的地点面临两种危险.
- 两个RCP-SSP2-4.5和RCP-SSP5-8.5场景都表明这些危险的增加.
结论:
- 该研究提供了关键的洞察力空间行为和干旱和森林火灾在加里曼丹增加的可能性.
- 结果支持研究人员和利益相关者进行风险评估和制定减缓策略.
- 预测风险地图是了解和管理气候变化对自然灾害影响的重要工具.
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