估计SARS-CoV-2感染和COVID-19严重程度和死亡率的相关变化
Valentina Marziano1, Giorgio Guzzetta1, Francesco Menegale1,2
1Center for Health Emergencies Bruno Kessler Foundation Trento Italy.
Influenza and other respiratory viruses
|August 21, 2023
概括
估计意大利的COVID-19感染表明,确诊情况有很大差异,而感染住院,ICU入院和死亡率在两年内由于变种和疫苗接种而大幅下降.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病建模传染病建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 准确识别SARS-CoV-2感染对于控制COVID-19大流行至关重要.
- 量化感染率,住院人数,ICU入院人数和死亡人数对于流行病管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计2020年2月至2022年意大利的SARS-CoV-2感染情况.
- 分析随着时间的推移,感染确定,住院,ICU入院和死亡率的变化.
- 评估变种和疫苗接种对这些比例的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种SARS-CoV-2传播和疫苗接种模型.
- 利用了官方估计的时间变化的繁殖数量.
- 模型结果与意大利国家监控数据进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 感染确诊率 (IAR) 在两年内从15%到40%不等.
- 感染住院率 (IHR),感染ICU比率 (IIR) 和感染死亡率 (IFR) 降低了22-44倍.
- 在研究结束时,IHR为0.24%,IIR为0.015%,IFR为0.05%.
结论:
- 自2021年以来,变异演变,疫苗接种和人口变化减少了SARS-CoV-2的确诊.
- 改善的患者护理和管理显著降低了COVID-19的严重程度和死亡率.
- 这些因素共同导致住院率和死亡率降低.
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