一种用于预测男性乳腺癌整体存活率风险的诺姆图
Yahui Wen1,2,3, Junjie Bai1,4, Caihong Zheng1,2,3
1Fujian Medical University Union Hospital, Fuzhou, Fujian, China.
Frontiers in oncology
|August 21, 2023
概括
我们开发了一种名谱来预测男性乳腺癌 (MBC) 患者的生存率. 这种工具比AJCC分期系统更准确,为MBC总生存率 (OS) 提供了更好的临床实用性.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医学统计 医学统计
- 预测建模预测建模
背景情况:
- 男性乳腺癌 (MBC) 是罕见的,前性数据有限.
- 目前的MBC治疗依赖于回顾性分析或来自女性患者的数据.
- 需要针对MBC特定的准确预后工具.
研究的目的:
- 构建和验证一个名谱模型,用于预测男性乳腺癌患者的整体存活率 (OS).
- 评估开发的诺莫图的临床实用性和准确性.
- 为了与已建立的AJCC分阶段系统对比nomogram的性能.
主要方法:
- 使用来自SEER注册表的1224名MBC患者 (2010-2015年) 开发了一个预测性名录.
- 通过考克斯回归分析确定了OS的独立预后因素.
- 在使用44名来自中国的MBC患者 (2002-2021) 验证了名图的性能,并使用ROC曲线和DCA.评估.
主要成果:
- 关键的预后因素包括T状态,年龄,组织学等级,M状态,ER,Her2状态和化疗.
- 诺图表显示出强大的预测准确性:在训练组中,AUC为0.786 (3年) 和0.767 (5年).
- 外部验证显示出高性能:验证队列中的AUC为0.893 (3年) 和0.895 (5年).
结论:
- 一个经过验证的诺米图准确地预测了男性乳腺癌患者的3年和5年的生存期.
- 命名图表表现出最佳的区分和校准,这表明它具有显著的临床实用性.
- 开发的模型在预测MBC患者存活率方面优于AJCC分期系统.
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