天际线化石出生死亡模型对违反总证据约会中采样假设的违规行为具有稳定性
Chi Zhang1, Fredrik Ronquist2, Tanja Stadler3,4
1Key Laboratory of Vertebrate Evolution and Human Origins, Institute of Vertebrate Paleontology and Paleoanthropology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100044, China.
Systematic biology
|August 22, 2023
概括
地平线化石化出生死亡 (SFBD) 过程提供了更强大的年龄估计,通过对采样偏差进行核算,减少了家族遗传约会中的深根吸引力 (DRA). 这种方法提高了进化研究的准确性,特别是对于像海门和Eutheria这样的群体.
科学领域:
- 进化生物学 进化生物学
- 人类遗传学 是一个学科.
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
背景情况:
- 使用化石化出生死亡 (FBD) 模型进行总证据约会可以产生不准确的,过于古老的年龄估计,这种现象被称为深根吸引 (DRA).
- 现有的纠正多元化样本采集的方法仅限于极端场景,并不能完全解决现实世界样本采集偏差或化石记录不完整性的问题.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一种更强大的约会方法,以减轻在遗传学分析中采样偏差引起的深根吸引力 (DRA).
- 评估天际线化石化出生死亡 (SFBD) 过程在提供不同进化场景中可靠的分歧时间估计方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 这项研究引入了天际线化石化出生死亡 (SFBD) 过程,允许多样化和化石采样率随着时间的推移逐步变化.
- 考虑了SFBD模型的两个变体:假定独立且相同分布的速率,或通过奥恩斯坦-乌伦贝克 (OU) 过程自相关.
- 通过模拟和重新分析现有的Hymenoptera (,蜜蜂,黄蜂) 和Eutheria (胎盘哺乳动物) 的数据集,测试了SFBD模型.
主要成果:
- SFBD模型显著减少了深根吸引 (DRA) 效应,并产生了与随机和多样化抽样假设一致的年龄估计.
- 两种SFBD变体均统一了年龄估计,证明了对采样过程建模不足的稳定性.
- SFBD模型有效地吸收了从抽样假设的偏差到推断的多元化动态,从而解决了DRA.
结论:
- 与标准的FBD模型相比,天际线化石化出生死亡 (SFBD) 过程提供了更可靠的年龄估计,并且对深根吸引 (DRA) 不那么敏感.
- SFBD为总证据约会提供了更可靠的方法,特别是在处理重大或复杂的抽样偏差时.
- 虽然推断的多元化动态需要谨慎解释,因为采样偏差适应,但SFBD代表了目前解决DRA的最强大的方法.
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