预计气候变化将导致一个合作繁殖者种群的人口崩
Daniella Rabaiotti1,2, Tim Coulson3, Rosie Woodroffe1,2
1Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK.
Global change biology
|August 22, 2023
概括
气候变化威胁着像非洲野狗 (Lycaon pictus) 这样的合作繁殖动物. 气温上升会降低幼虫的生存率,导致种群崩和灭绝风险,特别是对于较小的群体.
科学领域:
- 生态学和进化生物学
- 气候变化影响研究 影响研究
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 合作繁殖可能会作为对极端气候的反应而发展.
- 气候变化对合作繁殖物种的生存能力构成重大威胁.
- 预测气候变化影响需要了解群体和个人反应.
研究的目的:
- 模拟环境温度对非洲野狗 (Lycaon pictus) 种群动态的影响.
- 为了确定预测这个危物种种群体崩的温度值.
- 评估社会动态和招聘在气候变化脆弱性中的作用.
主要方法:
- 开发一个基于单性个体的单性模型.
- 纳入人口对环境温度的反应.
- 模拟不同载荷能力的种群 (9个和30个包装).
主要成果:
- 存在一个临界温度值,超过这个值,非洲野狗种群预计将崩.
- 在超过代表性度途径 (RCP) 2.6 场景的温度下,灭绝风险显著增加,对于中位数人口大小而言.
- 高环境温度大大降低了幼的生存率,损害了招募,导致人口减少.
结论:
- 社会动态对于确定社会物种如何应对气候变化至关重要.
- 招聘是气候变化对人口影响的一个关键因素.
- 长期数据参数化的人口模型对于预测气候变化下的未来人口生存能力至关重要.
关键词:
狮子座 (Lycaon pictus) 是一个象牙.气候变化 气候变化 气候变化人口学 人口学 人口学基于个人的模型.哺乳动物哺乳动物人口的人口人口人口.社会物种社会物种社会物种温度的温度的温度的温度的温度.更多相关视频
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