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在住院儿童中开发和验证中枢静脉接入装置相关的血栓形成的诺莫格拉姆模型
Lingyun Tian1,2, Yanan Su3, Huimin Gao4
1Department of Nursing, the First Affiliated Hospital of USTC, Division of Life Sciences and Medicine, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China.
European journal of pediatrics
|August 22, 2023
概括
一种新的名图模型有效地预测了住院儿童的中静脉接入装置相关的血栓形成 (CRT). 这种工具有助于减少错误诊断和CRT发生率,改善患者的治疗结果.
科学领域:
- 儿科血栓形成症 儿童血栓形成症
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 临床风险预测预测
背景情况:
- 中枢静脉接入装置相关的血栓塞 (CRT) 在住院儿童中通常是无症状的,导致经常错过诊断.
- 目前,在这个儿科患者群体中,对于CRT没有确立的风险预测名录模型.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个名谱模型,用于预测住院儿童中枢静脉接入装置相关的血栓形成 (CRT).
- 在儿科患者中确定与CRT相关的关键风险因素.
主要方法:
- 通过在503名住院儿童的训练组上使用后勤回归开发了一个名图模型.
- 该模型经过内部 (7:3 分割) 和外部验证,使用了另外85名儿科患者的数据.
- 模型的性能使用歧视 (AUC),校准和决策曲线分析进行了评估.
主要成果:
- 纳米图纳入了七个独立的风险因素:盲导管,肝功能异常,中线相关的血液感染,感染,导管线数量,白血病和长时间的床上休息 (>72小时).
- 该模型表现出良好的歧视,AUC为0.74 (培训),0.71 (内部验证) 和0.76 (外部验证).
- 准确率为79% (培训),72% (内部) 和71% (外部),所有数据集均进行了优异的校准.
结论:
- 开发的诺莫格拉姆模型作为一种有价值的风险评估工具,用于住院儿童的CRT.
- 这种模型的实施可以帮助降低错过诊断率和CRT的整体发病率.
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