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大西洋南部翻转的循环增加了沿美国东南海岸的洪水风险
Denis L Volkov1,2, Kate Zhang3, William E Johns4
1Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA. denis.volkov@noaa.gov.
Nature communications
|August 22, 2023
概括
大西洋南部翻转循环 (AMOC) 的减速正在增加沿海洪水风险. 最近的海洋变暖,由AMOC变化驱动,在美国东海岸显著增加了洪水日.
科学领域:
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海平面研究研究 海平面研究
背景情况:
- 大西洋南部翻转循环 (AMOC) 对于北大西洋气候和海平面的调节至关重要.
- 气候模型预测,由于人类活动,AMOC的减速可能会加快海平面上升和洪水风险.
研究的目的:
- 调查AMOC引起的海平面变化和美国东南部沿海洪水频率的影响.
- 确定海洋热趋同对近期海平面变化和洪水事件的贡献.
主要方法:
- 分析AMOC引起的旋转尺度热量含量的变化.
- 将这些变化叠加在全球平均海平面上升数据上.
- 关联海洋热趋同与年间海平面变化和洪水日.
主要成果:
- 海洋热趋同是亚热带北大西洋年间海平面变化的主要驱动因素.
- 自2010年以来观察到的异常的旋转变暖和动态的海平面上升.
- 与AMOC相关的变暖占2015年至2020年期间该地区30-50%的洪水日.
结论:
- 由AMOC引起的海洋变暖已经影响了海平面,并增加了美国东南部海岸的洪水频率.
- 观察到的变化表明,尽管有短暂的直接观测记录,但目前 AMOC 减速的潜在影响仍然存在.
- 调查结果强调,迫切需要了解和监测AMOC动态,以准确评估沿海洪水风险.
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