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史无前例的热浪的故事情节基于集体增强
E M Fischer1, U Beyerle2, L Bloin-Wibe2
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. erich.fischer@env.ethz.ch.
Nature communications
|August 22, 2023
概括
气候模型可以预测极端的热浪,甚至比以前观察到的更热. 这项研究表明如何生成可信的热浪情景,以便更好地为未来的气候极端事件做好准备.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
- 气候建模气候模型
背景情况:
- 最近的极端温度事件已经超过了历史记录,引发了关于可预测性的问题.
- 像2021年太平洋西北热浪这样的事件的强度似乎以前是不可想象的.
- 使用现有的气候模型评估这种前所未有的事件的潜力是一个关键的科学挑战.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候模型信息是否可以预测极端热浪的强度.
- 为了确定科学界是否能够量化前所未有的热量事件的潜在强度.
- 开发用于生成和验证物理上可信的极端热浪情景的方法.
主要方法:
- 利用集体提升方法生成基于气候模型的热浪故事情节.
- 应用了模拟超出观察强度的热浪情景的方法.
- 专注于包括太平洋西北部,芝加哥大区和巴黎在内的地区.
主要成果:
- 展示了整体提升方法的能力,以创建物理上可信的热浪故事情节.
- 产生的热浪情景明显高于历史上在太平洋西北地区观察到的热浪.
- 确定了芝加哥大区和巴黎等地区热浪强度更高的潜力.
结论:
- 气候模型,当用先进的技术分析时,可以提供关于前所未有的极端热事件的潜在洞察力.
- 关于"黑天"类气候事件的可靠和可操作信息的开发需要结合多种证据和过程理解.
- 通过提高极端天气的可预测性,利益相关者可以更好地了解气候适应和减缓.
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