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周末的COVID-19死亡人数

Fizza Manzoor1, Donald A Redelmeier2,3,4

  • 1Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.

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概括

与周日相比,周末报告的COVID-19死亡人数高出6%. 这个周末的报道偏见在整个大流行期间持续存在,可能会影响公众对风险的看法.

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在 COVID-19 疫情中,每日趋势 每日趋势健康的系统性能健康的系统性能.推理中的陷 推理中的陷风险感知 风险感知周末死亡率 周末死亡率

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科学领域:

  • 流行病学 流行病学
  • 公共卫生 公共卫生
  • 生物统计学 生物统计学

背景情况:

  • 死亡数据的周末报告可能会受到报告延迟,人员变化和效率降低的影响.
  • 这些因素可能导致对平日死亡的低估和对周末死亡的高估.

研究的目的:

  • 调查COVID-19 (冠状病毒疾病2019) 每日报告的死亡人数是否在周末与周日相比呈现出统计学上显著的增加.
  • 在多个国家分析这一现象,以了解其通用性.

主要方法:

  • 利用世界卫生组织COVID-19数据库从2020年3月7日到2022年3月7日 (两年) 的每日死亡人数.
  • 进行了初级分析,比较周末的平均每日死亡率与前五个工作日的平均每日死亡率.
  • 在十个特定的国家重复分析:美国,英国,法国,德国,意大利,西班牙,俄罗斯,印度,巴西和加拿大.

主要成果:

  • 在周末 (8,532) 与周日 (8,083) 相比,观察到平均每日COVID-19死亡人数的统计学上显著增加,相当于6%的相对增加 (95%CI:3%至8%).
  • 美国的周末死亡人数绝对上升幅度最大 (1483人对1220人),其次是巴西 (1061人对823人).
  • 本周末报告的增加在不同的流行病阶段和强度水平中仍然显著.

结论:

  • 周末报告的COVID-19死亡人数的增加表明了潜在的报告偏差,而不是死亡率的真正激增.
  • 这种偏见可能会影响对社区传播趋势的准确评估以及公众对流行病风险的看法.
  • 进一步调查报告机制是有必要的,以确保准确的公共卫生监测.