关闭骨骨折的术后恢复的风险预测模型:一个回顾性研究
Wenjing Li1, Yan Wang1, Zenglei Zhang2
1Hebei Provincial Key Laboratory of Orthopaedic Biomechanics, Hebei Orthopaedic Research Institute, No. 139 Ziqiang Road, Shijiazhuang, 050051, China.
Journal of orthopaedic surgery and research
|August 23, 2023
概括
女性患者,年龄较大 (>60岁),手术延迟 (8-14天),术后感染和长期举重 (>3个月) 会增加骨骨折恢复不良的风险. 一个预测模型有助于临床指导.
科学领域:
- 整形外科手术 整形外科手术
- 创伤外科 手术 创伤外科
- 医学预测建模医学预测建模
背景情况:
- 关闭的骨骨折是复杂的伤害,需要谨慎管理.
- 预测术后恢复对于患者的治疗结果和治疗计划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定关闭骨骨折患者术后恢复不良的风险因素.
- 开发和验证这些患者术后康复的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 对659名关闭骨骨折患者 (2017-2020年) 的回顾性分析.
- 在训练队列 (n=509) 上使用多变量逻辑回归的风险预测模型的开发.
- 内部验证 (启动) 和外部验证使用单独的队列 (n=150).
主要成果:
- 81.9%的患者实现了良好的术后康复.
- 恢复不良的独立风险因素包括:女性性别,年龄>60岁,在8-14天内进行手术,术后感染和承重时间>3个月.
- 该模型表现出良好的预测性能,C指数为0.750 (训练) 和0.688 (验证).
结论:
- 女性性别,晚年,手术延迟,感染和延长的承重是骨骨折手术后不良结果的重要风险因素.
- 开发的风险预测模型可以作为临床指导和患者管理的宝贵工具.
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