开发,验证和可视化一种新型名谱,用于预测患者中风风险
Chunxiao Wu1,2, Zhirui Xu2,3, Qizhang Wang1
1Shenzhen Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Shenzhen, China.
Frontiers in aging neuroscience
|August 23, 2023
概括
一种新的名图模型可以识别关键的中风风险因素,包括年龄,高血压和糖尿病. 这种工具有助于早期检测和更好的治疗决策,以预防中风.
科学领域:
- 心血管医学 心血管医学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 脑卒中是全球死亡和残疾的主要原因之一.
- 它给人们带来了巨大的财务和社会负担.
- 识别预测因素对于风险分层和预防至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在大量人群中确定中风风险的预测因素.
- 开发和验证脑中风的诺莫格拉姆预测模型.
- 评估开发的诺莫图的临床实用性.
主要方法:
- 从2011-2018年NHANES的11,435名参与者的回顾性分析.
- 使用最小绝对收缩和选择操作员 (LASSO) 和用于变量选择的逻辑回归.
- 开发了一个名图,并使用AUC,校准曲线和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 验证了其性能.
主要成果:
- 年龄较大,教育程度/收入较低,高血压,糖尿病,抑郁症,吸烟,饮酒,睡眠问题,心血管疾病,心血管疾病,胸痛和心肌梗塞是中风的重要预测因素.
- 诺米图实现了0.843 (开发) 和0.826 (验证) 的AUC.
- 该模型在各种风险值中显示出良好的校准和临床实用性.
结论:
- 一个经过验证的脑电图有效地整合了人口,血管,情绪和生活方式因素,以预测中风风险.
- 这种工具可以帮助查高风险个体.
- 脑电图支持医生做出明智的治疗决定,以减少中风的发生率.
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