热带放大:一种模型对海洋食物网中气候驱动的变化进行相互比较
Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais1,2, Hubert du Pontavice1,3, Gabriel Reygondeau2
1UMR Dynamics and Sustainability of Ecosystems: From Source to Sea (DECOD), Institut Agro, Ifremer, INRAE, Rennes, France.
PloS one
|August 23, 2023
概括
预计由于气候变化,海洋动物生物量将大幅减少. 消费者生物质预计将比初级生产减少更多,特别是在某些海洋地区,突出显示复杂的食物网反应.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,海洋动物生物量正在减少.
- 热带放大可能会加剧捕食者的生物质损失.
- 了解食物网的动态对于预测生态系统变化至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估海洋食物网中食物放大程度的程度.
- 为了比较全球生产者和消费者生物质的相对变化.
- 研究气候变化对海洋生态系统的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自九个海洋生态系统模型 (MEM) 的模拟.
- 强制模型与两个地球系统模型在高排放下 (SSP5-8.5).
- 在没有捕鱼的场景下分析了生产者和消费者生物质的变化.
主要成果:
- 全球消费者生物质预计到2099年将比净初级生产 (NPP) 减少16.7 ± 9.5%.
- 预计80%的海洋将出现消费者生物质的减少.
- 在40%的海洋中,消费生物量比NPP减少更多;在36%的海洋中,尽管NPP增加,但消费生物量仍在减少.
结论:
- 海洋食物网表现出对气候变化的复杂反应,而不仅仅是一致的放大.
- 模型参数和结构影响预测的生物质变化.
- 调查结果为未来的海洋生态系统模型和场景开发提供了信息.
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