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使用动态贝叶斯网络对中国游艇旅游的风险评估
Yunhao Yao1, Xiaoxing Zhou1, Merle Parmak1
1School of Public Administration & Humanities, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, Liaoning, P.R. China.
PloS one
|August 23, 2023
概括
人类行为是游艇旅游安全风险 (YTSR) 的主要原因. 夏季和珍珠河三角洲的风险更高,这需要改善中国的安全系统.
科学领域:
- 海洋和沿海旅游安全 海洋和沿海旅游安全
- 海洋运营中的风险管理
背景情况:
- 游艇旅游安全对于减少事故至关重要.
- 中国沿海地区的事故需要进行彻底的风险评估.
研究的目的:
- 识别和评估游艇旅游安全风险 (YTSR).
- 为中国的YTSR建立一个动态评估模型.
主要方法:
- 鱼骨图和分析层次过程 (AHP) 用于风险因素识别.
- 动态贝叶斯网络 (DBN) 用于动态风险评估.
- 对115起游艇旅游事故 (2008-2021) 的分析.
主要成果:
- 人类因素 (不安全的行为) 是主要的YTSR.
- 夏季和珍珠河三角洲地区的风险水平较高.
- 在人类,游艇,环境和管理类别中确定了风险.
结论:
- 建议加强安全风险预防和控制系统.
- 多方利益相关者协调和改善保险服务至关重要.
- 这些发现为海洋旅游安全和YTSR管理提供了指导.
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