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热带森林复植的未来生产率大幅下降,平均年温度高于29°C以上
Anja Nölte1, Rasoul Yousefpour1,2, Miguel Cifuentes-Jara3,4
1University of Freiburg, Tennenbacherstr. 4, Freiburg 79106, Germany.
Science advances
|August 23, 2023
概括
热带森林再生对于碳捕获至关重要,但气候变化威胁着它的成功. 气温上升显著降低了森林生长,可能会使干旱热带地区的生产率下降一半,并影响潮湿森林,减少森林复植.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 热带森林再生是通过碳捕获缓解气候变化的关键战略.
- 目前对复林潜力的估计往往忽视了气候变化对森林生产力的影响.
- 了解这些影响对于有效的气候行动计划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在各种气候变化场景下分析中美洲热带森林再生的未来生产力.
- 量化温度上升和相关环境变化对树木生长的影响.
- 评估重新造林作为气候减缓工具在不同排放途径下的有效性.
主要方法:
- 利用基于过程的森林生长模型3-PGmix来模拟未来的森林生产力.
- 分析了多种多样的热带低地气候区和五种不同的树种的生产力.
- 根据不同的气候变化情景评估影响,包括SSP3-7.0 (高排放) 和SSP2-4.5 (中等排放).
主要成果:
- 生产力急剧下降 (-11%每升温1°C) 在物种和区域的平均年温度约为29°C左右.
- 在SSP3-7.0下,干旱热带森林再生的生产率几乎下降了一半;潮湿和雨林损失了~10%.
- 在SSP2-4.5下,潮湿和雨林表现出性,而干森林经历了~17%的损失.
- 增加的蒸汽压力赤字被确定为增长减缓的主要驱动因素.
结论:
- 持续的高排放路径大大削弱了热带复林的碳封存潜力.
- 气候变化的影响,特别是蒸汽压力赤字的增加,对森林再生的有效性构成重大威胁.
- 再造林战略必须考虑到气候变化,才能继续成为一个可行的气候行动工具.
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