评估客观体育活动措施对发生帕金森病的预测性能在英国生物银行
Angela Zhao1, Erjia Cui2,3, Andrew Leroux4
1Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA. azhao29@jh.edu.
Journal of neurology
|August 23, 2023
概括
客观的体力活动 (PA) 措施,如总加速,显著预测帕金森病 (PD) 风险. 将PA数据与年龄和性别结合到模型中,大大提高了PD预测的准确性.
科学领域:
- 神经学 神经学
- 生物医学工程 生物医学工程
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 帕金森病 (PD) 是一个快速增长的全球神经系统疾病.
- 虽然年龄和性别是已确定的PD风险因素,但需要额外的预测因素.
- 这项研究调查了加速计衍生体力活动 (PA) 测量作为潜在的PD预测因素.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较客观的PA措施的预测性能与事件PD的传统风险因素.
- 在多变量PD预测模型中评估PA指标的附加值.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自92,352名在基线没有PD的参与者的英国生物库数据.
- 使用考克斯模型比较了10个传统的风险因素和8个客观的PA措施.
- 通过重复交叉验证一致性 (rcvC) 评估预测性能,并进行敏感性分析.
主要成果:
- 所有的PA测量都显示出显著的预测值 (p < 0.0001).
- 总加速 (TA) 在PA指标中表现出最高的个体预测性能 (rcvC = 0.813).
- 包括年龄,性别和TA在内的模型实现了最高的预测准确度 (rcvC = 0.851),TA提高了9.8%的预测.
结论:
- 目标PA总结在PD的单一预测模型中表现优于传统的风险因素.
- 当与年龄和性别相结合时,PA测量显著提高PD预测.
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