对侵入性黄蜂控制的基因驱动:灭绝不太可能,抑制取决于分散和生长速度
Philip J Lester1, David O'Sullivan2, George L W Perry3
1School of Biological Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.
概括
基因驱动对长期害虫抑制有希望,而不是根除入侵性黄蜂. 模拟预测了大量的人口减少,但也预测了修改后的黄蜂的持续存在,这引发了伦理方面的考虑.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 遗传学 是一个遗传学.
- 侵袭性物种管理 侵袭性物种管理
背景情况:
- 基因驱动提供了一种通过在种群中传播遗传修饰来控制害虫的新方法.
- 侵袭性社会黄蜂 (Vespula vulgaris) 对生态和经济构成重大威胁.
研究的目的:
- 评估基因驱动对控制新西兰入侵性黄蜂种群的有效性.
- 评估局部分散,远距离分散和人口增长对基因驱动成功的影响.
主要方法:
- 空间显式模拟包括现实的新西兰景观与可变的息地质量.
- 建模基因驱动的传播和影响,考虑本地和人为媒介的分散.
- 25年来对人口动态,抑制水平和时空变异性的分析.
主要成果:
- 基因驱动的根除并未实现;预计修改型和野生型黄蜂的区域持久性.
- 在25年后,人口抑制达到<95%,其中"追逐动态"显示了丰度的空间变化.
- 当地分散和高内在增长率增加了人口变化和占用面积,而远距离分散的影响最小.
结论:
- 基因驱动不太可能导致快速的害虫灭绝,但可以提供长期的,具有成本效益的抑制.
- 预测的抑制水平可以显著减少入侵性黄蜂的生态影响.
- 转基因生物的长期持久性需要仔细的伦理考虑和基因驱动部署的风险评估.
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