在结束零COVID政策后,中国的各种原因过度死亡率
Hong Xiao1, Zhicheng Wang2, Fang Liu2
1Public Health Sciences Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington.
JAMA network open
|August 24, 2023
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 中国的动态零COVID政策多年来保持了低的COVID-19发病率和死亡率.
- 这项政策在2022年12月突然结束,导致COVID-19病例和住院病例大幅增加.
研究的目的:
- 实证地估计中国政策转变对人口死亡率的影响.
- 评估动态零COVID政策结束与过度死亡之间的关联.
主要方法:
- 一项队列研究分析了从2016年1月到2023年1月的大学告数据和百度搜索索引数据.
- 一个被中断的时间序列设计估计死亡率在政策转变后发生变化,将搜索数据与实际死亡率相关联.
- 根据区域数据,在全国范围内推断出过度死亡率.
主要成果:
- 据估计,在政策变化后的头两个月,中国30岁以上的个人中发生了187万例过度死亡.
- 过度死亡率集中在老年人群中,并在大多数省份观察到.
- 在与死亡相关的搜索引擎查询和实际死亡率之间发现了强烈的相关性.
结论:
- 取消中国的零COVID政策与所有原因死亡率大幅增加有关.
- 调查结果突出了流行病期间快速政策转变对人口健康的影响.
- 这项研究为公共卫生战略和流行病应对计划提供了关键数据.
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