为了减缓气候变化,需要采取措施对森林保护进行碳补偿
Thales A P West1,2, Sven Wunder3,4, Erin O Sills5
1Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
概括
大多数自愿避免砍伐森林的项目对减少森林损失的影响很小. 实现的减排通常低于声称的,这突显了碳补偿的基线方法的问题.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 气候变化研究
- 林业管理
背景情况:
- 避免森林砍伐的碳补偿依赖于与预计森林砍伐相比的表现 (前期基线).
- 评估这些项目的真正影响对于碳核算和保护激励措施至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估自愿避免森林砍伐项目在减少森林砍伐方面的有效性.
- 将项目所宣称的森林砍伐减少与实际结果进行比较.
主要方法:
- 使用合成控制方法进行因果推断.
- 分析了三大洲六个国家的26个项目地点.
- 基于对照区域的前期森林砍伐基线与后期反事实相比较.
主要成果:
- 大多数项目没有显著减少森林砍伐.
- 对于确实出现减产的项目,其影响远低于所声称的.
- 项目基线与对照区域的森林砍伐差异造成了差异.
结论:
- 目前用于构建碳补偿的森林砍伐基线的方法需要紧急修订.
- 准确的基线构造对于将森林砍伐减少归因于项目至关重要.
- 为了保持森林保护激励和全球碳核算完整性,需要进行修订.
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