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快速增加与热有关的死亡风险
Samuel Lüthi1,2, Christopher Fairless3, Erich M Fischer4
1Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. samuel.luethi@usys.ethz.ch.
Nature communications
|August 24, 2023
概括
气候变化正在增加极端炎热季节的频率,导致高温相关死亡率. 如果没有适应,过去的极端高温事件将成为常见,需要紧急的缓解努力.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候科学是气候科学.
背景情况:
- 与热量相关的死亡率是与极端气候有关的重大公共卫生风险.
- 现有的研究主要将热死亡与全球平均气温上升联系起来,对极端夏季季节的影响不太清楚.
研究的目的:
- 评估由于气候变化而导致极端夏季季节的频率和严重程度的预计增加.
- 量化气候变化对与热有关的死亡事件的影响.
主要方法:
- 来自全球748个地点的综合经验热死亡率关系.
- 利用气候模型大集合数据进行概率分析.
- 确定了可能的过去和未来极具影响力的夏季季节.
主要成果:
- 2000年每100年发生一次的热死亡事件,到2020年预计每10到20年发生一次.
- 这些回归期预计将在1.5°C和2°C升温水平下进一步缩短.
- 预计过去的极端热死亡事件将在没有适应的情况下变得普遍.
结论:
- 气候变化显著放大了极端炎热季节和相关死亡率的风险.
- 紧急实施强有力的缓解和适应战略至关重要,以减少对人类生活的影响.
- 该研究强调需要采取主动措施,以应对与高温有关的健康危机不断升级的威胁.
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