在一个以热带季风为主导的国家使用MAKESENS和机器学习技术进行时空空间分析和预测降雨趋势
Md Moniruzzaman Monir1, Md Rokonuzzaman1, Subaran Chandra Sarker2
1Department of Geography and Environmental Science, Begum Rokeya University, Rangpur, Bangladesh.
Scientific reports
|August 25, 2023
概括
孟加拉国的降雨量呈现下降趋势,特别是在季风和干旱季节,影响水资源. 未来的预测表明,从11月到2月的降雨量最小,预计到2030年之前会出现波动.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 了解降雨变化对于热带季风地区的水资源管理至关重要.
- 孟加拉国是一个以季风为主导的国家,缺乏关于时空空间降雨趋势的全面数据.
- 气候变化的影响需要对降雨模式进行详细的分析,以制定适应战略.
研究的目的:
- 分析孟加拉国从1980年到2020年的时空降雨变化,以季节和月度的尺度进行分析.
- 使用多层感知 (MLP) 神经网络预测未来降雨变化.
- 为了确定观察到的降雨模式变化的驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 使用MAKESENS,Pettitt测试和创新的趋势分析进行时空降雨趋势分析.
- 在ArcGIS中使用逆距离权重模型进行空间模式分析.
- 使用多层感知 (MLP) 神经网络和ECMWF ERA5再分析数据进行降雨预测.
主要成果:
- 年平均降雨量为2432.6毫米,其中7月至8月的降雨量为57.6%.
- 77%的站点显示每月降雨趋势下降;80%的站点显示11月至3月和8月降雨趋势下降.
- 在季风前,季风前和季风后的季节观察到显著的下降趋势,特别是在特定地区.
结论:
- 孟加拉国的降雨模式正在发生变化,主要下降趋势影响了水的可用性.
- 预测的降雨量表明,从11月到2月的干旱条件和到2030年的波动模式.
- 卷积雨量,云层和湿度分歧的变化可能会导致这些观察到的降雨模式的变化.
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