在2019年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 混乱系统中生成多个卷轴及其对零Covid政策的影响
Muhammad Marwan1, Maoan Han2, Rizwan Khan3
1School of Mathematical Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, 321004, China. marwan78642@zjnu.edu.cn.
使用模糊理论,不可能实现每天的COVID-19病例为零. 数学模型展示了单个病例如何导致附近城市的混乱传播,突出了复杂的传播动态.
科学领域:
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 混沌理论 混沌理论
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19的爆发,人们需要先进的建模技术来了解疾病的传播.
- 传统的模型经常与传染病传播的固有不确定性和复杂动态作斗争.
研究的目的:
- 通过模糊理论来调查完全根除COVID-19的不可能.
- 模拟传染病从单个病例到相邻的城市地区的混乱传播.
- 探索多滚动吸引器和信号函数在流行病学建模中的应用.
主要方法:
- 模糊理论的应用,以在区间 (0,1) 内的每日新增COVID-19病例进行建模.
- 使用多滚动吸引器和信号激发功能来模拟城市之间的疾病传播.
- 分析分叉图,以了解控制参数与疾病发病率之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 证明了在理论上不可能永久地实现每日零COVID-19病例.
- 展示了单个感染如何在连接的城市中心引发混乱的传播模式.
- 展示了严格的法规可能最初会减少病例,但矛盾的是,可能导致混乱的爆发.
结论:
- 模糊理论和混乱动态为COVID-19传播的不可预测性提供了宝贵的见解.
- 为多滚动吸引器开发的通用算法在工程和复杂系统分析方面具有潜在的应用.
- 未来的研究旨在探索COVID-19向流感状特征的演变.
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