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基于DTARCH模型的金融风险测量EVaR基于DTARCH模型
Xiaoqian Liu1, Zhenni Tan1, Yuehua Wu1
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|August 26, 2023
概括
本研究引入了一种新的金融风险评估方法,使用预期风险价值 (EVaR) 和双门自回归条件异形 (DTARCH) 模型. 拟议的加权复合预测回归 (WCER) 准确地估计了极端的金融风险,即使是未知的参数.
科学领域:
- 量化金融 量化金融
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 金融风险管理 金融风险管理
背景情况:
- 衡量金融风险至关重要,特别是在极端事件时.
- 预期风险值 (EVaR) 提供了一种可靠的方法来量化金融风险.
- 双门自回归条件异曲率 (DTARCH) 模型以零碎线性函数捕捉资产回报波动.
研究的目的:
- 为DTARCH模型提出一种新的加权复合预测回归 (WCER) 估计.
- 在资产回报特征非线性时,使用EVaR增强极端金融风险的预测.
- 通过不假定已知的值和延迟参数来解决现有的DTARCH模型的局限性.
主要方法:
- 开发加权复合预测回归 (WCER) 框架.
- 对DTARCH模型的预测回归理论的应用.
- 模拟研究以评估有限样本中WCER估计的性能.
主要成果:
- 拟议的WCER估计显示了有限样本的充足和有希望的性能.
- 该方法有效地估计DTARCH模型,而无需事先了解值和延迟参数.
- 成功地应用了分析杭 Seng 指数 (HSI) 和标准普尔 500 指数 (SPI) 每日回报的方法.
结论:
- 通过EVaR,WCER估计为评估极端金融风险提供了一个有价值的工具.
- 该方法通过放松参数假设,对现有的DTARCH模型进行了改进.
- 对HSI和SPI的经验分析验证了拟议方法的实际适用性.
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