揭开马来西亚汇率决定的秘密:一个改变游戏规则的混合模型
Shamaila Butt1,2, Muhammad Ramzan2, Wing-Keung Wong3,4
1Accounting and Finance Department, Faculty of Management, University Technology Malaysia, Block T08, 81310 UTM Skudai, Johor, Malaysia.
Heliyon
|August 28, 2023
概括
马来西亚的汇率在短期和长期内受到利率差异和买卖差异的影响. 观察到不对称的效应,石油价格也在汇率动态中发挥作用.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 金融市场 金融市场
- 宏观经济学 宏观经济学
背景情况:
- 在经济文献中,名义汇率的确定仍然是一个复杂的问题.
- 现有的研究往往侧重于宏观经济或微观结构因素,但很少同时进行.
研究的目的:
- 用混合方法分析马来西亚的名义汇率确定.
- 调查宏观经济 (利率差异,石油价格) 和微观结构 (订单流,买卖差) 的决定因素.
- 检查这些关系在长期和短期的视野.
主要方法:
- 利用马来西亚2010年至2017年的每日高频数据.
- 采用非线性自回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 方法进行分析.
主要成果:
- 买卖差和利率差是短期和长期汇率动态的关键决定因素.
- 发现了利率差异的长期不对称性和微观结构决定因素的短期不对称性的证据.
- 负油价变化和买卖差额被确定为分别是重要的宏观经济新闻和流动性决定因素.
结论:
- 短期不对称性在累积订单流和买卖差异中突出,而长期不对称性存在于石油价格和汇率之间.
- 该研究为货币当局和市场交易者提供了关于汇率决定的政策指导.
- 买卖差和石油价格是马来西亚短期汇率决定因素.
相关概念视频
Transformers with Off-Nominal Turns Ratios
176
In scenarios involving parallel transformers with disparate ratings, developing per-unit models requires accommodating off-nominal turns ratios. This situation arises when the selected base voltages are not proportional to the transformer’s voltage ratings. Consider a transformer where the rated voltages are related by the term a. If the chosen voltage bases satisfy a relationship involving term b, term c is defined as the ratio of these bases. This ratio is then substituted into the...
176
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
64
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
64
Hybrid Zones
17.1K
Hybrid zones are narrow regions where two closely related species interact, mate, and produce hybrids. Relative to either parent species, hybrids may possess distinct phenotypic or genetic differences that impact their survival and reproductive success. The genetic variances introduced by hybridization influence species diversity and speciation processes within the hybrid zone.
17.1K
Simplified Synchronous Machine Model
268
The Synchronous Machine Model is a fundamental tool in analyzing and ensuring the transient stability of power systems. This model simplifies the representation of a synchronous machine under balanced three-phase positive-sequence conditions, assuming constant excitation and ignoring losses and saturation. The model is pivotal for understanding the behavior of synchronous generators connected to a power grid, particularly during transient events.
In this model, each generator is connected to a...
In this model, each generator is connected to a...
268
The Swing Equation
474
The Swing Equation is a fundamental tool in power system dynamics, especially for analyzing the behavior of generating units like three-phase synchronous generators. This equation emerges from applying Newton's second law to the rotor of a generator, encompassing factors such as inertia, angular acceleration, and the interplay between mechanical and electrical torques.
In a steady-state operation, the mechanical torque (Τm) supplied to the generator is balanced by the electrical torque...
In a steady-state operation, the mechanical torque (Τm) supplied to the generator is balanced by the electrical torque...
474
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Algorithms for Numerical Problem Solving
79
Mechanistic models play a crucial role in algorithms for numerical problem-solving, particularly in nonlinear mixed effects modeling (NMEM). These models aim to minimize specific objective functions by evaluating various parameter estimates, leading to the development of systematic algorithms. In some cases, linearization techniques approximate the model using linear equations.
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
79


