基于多种类型的地方,构建和评估每小时平均室内PM2.5度预测模型
Yewen Shi1, Zhiyuan Du2, Jianghua Zhang1
1Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, China.
Frontiers in public health
|August 28, 2023
概括
机器学习模型准确地预测室内细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 水平. 随机森林回归模型在评估室内空气质量时,与多重线性回归模型相比,表现优越.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 室内细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 由于在室内花费大量时间而对人类健康产生重大影响.
- 准确评估室内PM2.5暴露对于流行病学研究和公共卫生风险评估至关重要.
- 开发室内PM2.5度的预测模型对于了解人口层面的健康风险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和比较每小时平均室内PM2.5度预测模型.
- 评估机器学习 (随机森林回归) 和经典统计 (多线性回归) 方法的性能.
- 在各种室内环境中确定影响室内PM2.5度的关键预测因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自五个不同的场所类型的11,712个室内PM2.5监测记录.
- 应用多重线性回归 (MLR) 和随机森林回归 (RFR) 算法用于模型开发.
- 采用十倍交叉验证来评估模型预测性能,使用户外和气象数据作为预测器.
主要成果:
- 无论是MLR和RFR模型都表现出良好的预测性能,RFR的确定系数 (R2 = 72.20%) 比MLR (R2 = 60.35%) 高.
- 使用与MLR相同的预测因素的RFR模型也表现出强的表现 (R2 = 71.86%).
- 两种模型中确定的关键预测因素包括室外PM2.5度,地点类型,季节,时间,风向和表面风速.
结论:
- 为多种场所类型开发了新的每小时平均室内PM2.5预测模型.
- 随机森林回归模型,一种机器学习方法,显著超过了多重线性回归模型.
- 这些发现突显了机器学习算法的潜力,特别是RFR,用于准确预测室内空气污染物度.
更多相关视频
09:33Visualizing Field Data Collection Procedures of Exposure and Biomarker Assessments for the Household Air Pollution Intervention Network Trial in India
Published on: December 23, 2022
2.3K
07:14Automated, High-resolution Mobile Collection System for the Nitrogen Isotopic Analysis of NOx
Published on: December 20, 2016
11.7K
相关概念视频
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
64
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
64
Measurement of Air Content in Concrete
180
Air content measurement in concrete is critical for ensuring structural integrity and durability of concrete structures, especially in environments prone to severe weather conditions. Accurate air content analysis optimizes concrete's resistance to freeze-thaw cycles and enhances its workability and strength. Several methods are standardized under ASTM guidelines to measure the air content in fresh concrete, each suitable for different concrete types and conditions.
The pressure method,...
The pressure method,...
180
Prediction Intervals
2.3K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
2.3K
Sampling Plans
208
Sampling is a crucial step in analytical chemistry, allowing researchers to collect representative data from a large population. Common sampling methods include random, judgmental, systematic, stratified, and cluster sampling.
Random sampling is a method where each member of the population has an equal chance of being selected for the sample. It involves selecting individuals randomly, often using random number generators or lottery-type methods. For example, when analyzing the properties of a...
Random sampling is a method where each member of the population has an equal chance of being selected for the sample. It involves selecting individuals randomly, often using random number generators or lottery-type methods. For example, when analyzing the properties of a...
208
Precipitation and Co-precipitation
1.8K
Precipitation and coprecipitation methods can be used to separate a mixture of ions in a solution. In qualitative inorganic analysis, ions that form sparingly soluble precipitates with the same reagent are separated based on the differences in solubility products. For example, consider the separation of Cu(II) and Fe(II) ions by precipitation as insoluble sulfides. First, copper(II) sulfide is precipitated by the addition of acidic H2S, where the dissociation of H2S is suppressed. Adding H2S...
1.8K
