从1961年到2017年,中国的夏日时空变化 (SU25) 和相关的循环因子
Yuhong Guo1,2, Xiaodong Yan3, Wenqiang Xie2
1College of Tourism, Resources and Environment, Zaozhuang University, Zaozhuang, 277160, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|August 28, 2023
概括
每年气温超过25°C (SU25) 的天数在中国各地不断增加,特别是从北到南. 预计未来极端炎热天的增加,受到大西洋多年周期振荡的重大影响.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 了解气候极端对于应对气候变化至关重要.
- 温度极端的时空变化及其驱动因素需要研究.
研究的目的:
- 分析中国每年最高气温>25°C (SU25) 的天数的时间和空间变化.
- 用地理探测器方法 (GMD) 量化评估大规模循环因素对SU25的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用来自中国2398个气象站 (1961-2017) 的每日最高气温数据.
- 应用了地理探测器方法 (GMD) 来评估循环因素的贡献.
- 分析了SU25的时间趋势,空间分布和未来预测.
主要成果:
- 在全国范围内,SU25呈现出显著的上升趋势 (2.5天/十年),北向南的空间梯度.
- 西藏高原显示SU25增长最慢 (1.4天/十年).
- 高赫斯特值表明SU25持续增加;大多数地区在20世纪90年代发生了临界点.
- 大西洋多年周期振荡 (AMO) 是SU25变化的一个主要因素,与相互作用因素的协同非线性增强.
结论:
- 在中国各地,SU25正在增加,这表明未来的趋势是更多的极端热天.
- 大规模的循环因素,特别是AMO,显著影响SU25,其综合影响比单个影响更为重大.
- 未来的气候变化缓解战略必须考虑这些复杂的相互作用和区域差异.
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