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模拟消费者对新型食品的选择
1Department of Industrial Engineering, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
PloS one
|August 28, 2023
概括
预测对细胞农业等新型食品的需求至关重要. 这项研究开发了一个系统动态模型,显示价格和消费者实用性是关键驱动因素,店内样本促进了采用.
科学领域:
- 食品技术和消费者行为分析.
- 用于市场预测的系统动态建模.
背景情况:
- 减少粮食生产对环境的影响日益令人担忧.
- 新型食品技术,如细胞农业,在消费者接受和市场透方面面临挑战.
- 现有的需求预测模型不能充分解决新型食品的问题.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个系统动态模型,用于预测新型食品技术的需求.
- 分析营销策略,产品质量和消费者异质性对市场透的影响.
- 用细胞农业作为需求预测的案例研究.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个系统动态模型,包括消费者的异质性,意识,口碑营销 (WOM),店内营销,定价和产品实用性.
- 模拟了各种营销和质量场景,以估计传播率和市场透率.
- 在模型框架内使用购买意向数据.
主要成果:
- 产品价格和消费者实用性被确定为最终需求的主要驱动因素,无论营销场景如何.
- 店内产品采样加速了扩散率,除了低效用和高价格的情况下.
- 当细胞农业产品价格与传统肉类价格相等时,在32周内实现了市场和,但当价格翻倍时却没有.
结论:
- 开发的模型解决了对新型食品技术需求预测的关键差距.
- 价格和效用对于消费者采用蜂农业产品至关重要.
- 营销策略,特别是店内采样,可以影响扩散率,但对核心产品价值和成本来说是次要的.
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