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基于功能区域划分的城市洪水灾害的动态风险评估 - - 中国深的一个案例研究
Ting Wang1, Huimin Wang1, Zhiqiang Wang2
1Management Science Institute, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China; Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China.
Journal of environmental management
|August 28, 2023
概括
本研究通过分析功能区内的人口流动来评估城市洪水风险. 使用移动数据和水力动力学模型进行动态风险评估可以改善灾害预防策略.
科学领域:
- 城市规划和灾害管理
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 和大数据分析
- 水文学和洪水风险建模
背景情况:
- 城市洪水风险评估对于预防和减轻灾害至关重要.
- 传统的方法往往忽视了人口分布的动态性.
- 了解人口流动是准确,实时风险评估的关键.
研究的目的:
- 评估受人口流动影响的动态城市洪水风险.
- 开发一个时空模型,整合城市功能区划和人口数据.
- 加强城市地区的防灾和减灾战略.
主要方法:
- 使用 POI 数据识别城市功能区域.
- 在功能区内通过移动信号大数据检测人口流动.
- 使用1D和2D水力动力学模型模拟50年洪水场景.
- 构建一个动态的洪水风险评估模型,包括洪水,水深,人口密度和功能区域的灾难承受能力.
主要成果:
- 城市功能区划有效地分类了各种各样的城市区域,与现实世界的条件保持一致.
- 在高峰时段的动态人口移动显示出复杂的分散,集中和过渡模式.
- 午餐时间的人口转移创造了可识别的高风险区域,特别是在中央和梅林地区.
- 动态洪水风险模型准确地识别了降雨事件期间功能区域之间的风险波动.
结论:
- 动态的人口流动显著影响城市洪水风险.
- 与静态指标相比,整合功能区划和移动大数据提供了更好的洞察力.
- 开发的时空模型提高了针对性灾害管理的城市洪水风险评估的精度和准确性.
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