太平洋十年振荡导致印度洋北部的近赤道气旋减少
Shinto Roose1,2, R S Ajayamohan3,4, Pallav Ray5
1Arabian Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences, New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE.
Nature communications
|August 28, 2023
概括
印度洋北部的近赤道热带气旋已经显著下降,原因是性减弱和风剪率增加. 气候变化和太平洋十年振荡 (PDO) 可能会增加未来的气旋活动.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 热带气旋很少在赤道附近形成,但可以迅速加剧.
- 在印度洋北部的近赤道气旋在季风后的季节至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查1951-2010年印度洋北部近赤道热带气旋 (5°N-11°N) 的频率.
- 确定影响热带气旋活动观察到的变化的因素.
主要方法:
- 60年来热带气旋历史数据的分析.
- 评估低水平旋转,垂直风切和太平洋十年振荡 (PDO) 的影响.
主要成果:
- 在1951-1980年和1981-2010年之间,近赤道热带气旋下降了43%.
- 较低水平旋的减弱和垂直风剪率的增加被确定为下降的主要原因.
- 低度盆地范围的变暖和有利的PDO阶段与强度和频率的增加有关.
结论:
- 热带气旋活动的变化是由于自然变化 (PDO) 和气候变化的相互作用造成的.
- 在特定的气候条件下,预计这些气旋的强度和频率将在未来增加.
- 由于热带气旋行为的这些独特变化,有效的规划和减缓策略是必不可少的.
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